The Besen Group models $25.35 billion Starlink Mobile U.S. revenue by 2031

The Besen Group has released a five-year analysis of a potential Starlink Mobile business in the U.S., modeling revenue growth from $1.14 billion in 2027 to $25.35 billion in 2031. The scenario centers on a hybrid terrestrial and direct-to-cell network and says enterprise connectivity could drive most of the revenue by the end of the period.

Why it matters: - The analysis frames Starlink Mobile as a potential hybrid network model, not a direct replacement for traditional mobile service. - The modeled U.S. opportunity reaches $25.35 billion in revenue by 2031, with EBITDA projected at $18.85 billion. - Enterprise services account for about 70% of modeled revenue by 2031, signaling that business customers may matter more than consumers in the long run.

What happened: - The Besen Group released its Starlink Mobile U.S. Business Plan Analysis, a five-year strategic and financial framework covering 2027 through 2031. - The report models revenue rising from about $1.14 billion in 2027 to about $25.35 billion in 2031. - The same scenario models EBITDA increasing from about $769 million to about $18.85 billion over that period. - The analysis is based on independent research, market analysis and financial modeling using publicly available information, including SpaceX’s second-quarter 2026 results. - The Besen Group says the work is an independent scenario analysis and should not be read as SpaceX guidance or a prediction of actual business plans.

The details: - The model assumes a hybrid mobile network that combines terrestrial mobile connectivity, roaming and wholesale partnerships, and Starlink Direct-to-Cell satellite connectivity. - Terrestrial mobile networks are modeled as the primary capacity layer in higher-density areas. - Direct-to-Cell satellite connectivity is modeled as a complementary layer for remote areas, transportation corridors, maritime environments and other places where terrestrial coverage is limited or uneconomic. - Roaming and wholesale connectivity could allow Starlink Mobile to sell satellite capacity to mobile network operator partners. - Femtocells and targeted capacity are included as localized infrastructure to add terrestrial coverage in selected consumer, enterprise, industrial and distributed locations. - The enterprise opportunity is broken into verticals including aviation, maritime, healthcare, energy and utilities, construction, mining, industrial, government, defense and public safety. - The analysis includes U.S. market sizing, consumer subscriber and enterprise endpoint forecasts, ARPU, mobile data traffic and terrestrial-versus-satellite traffic allocation assumptions. - It also models roaming, wholesale, satellite and D2C, and ground/core/OSS-BSS cost structures. - The framework includes femtocell deployment, device, SIM/eSIM and logistics costs, plus CapEx, OpEx, depreciation, EBITDA, free cash flow and valuation scenarios. - The model includes a $23.1 billion spectrum investment, along with spending on satellite and D2C infrastructure, ground/core/OSS infrastructure and targeted femtocell deployment. - The Besen Group says the analysis is meant to help investors, mobile network operators, satellite operators, MVNOs and infrastructure providers assess terrestrial-satellite convergence. - The report is available for corporate license in PowerPoint PDF format, and the analysis tool is available in Excel format. - An outline of the report can be downloaded here. - A limited version of the analysis tool can be downloaded here. - Corporate license pricing and additional information are available by email at research@thebesengroup.com.

Between the lines: - The model suggests the economics of a satellite-mobile business may depend heavily on enterprise demand rather than consumer adoption alone. - The report’s structure points to a broader industry thesis: mobile connectivity may increasingly be built as a blend of terrestrial and space-based capacity. - The disclaimer makes clear the analysis is illustrative and does not confirm any SpaceX strategy, partnerships, spectrum purchases or deployment plans.

What's next: - The Besen Group is offering the report and tool to corporate buyers who want to test potential business cases around Starlink Mobile and terrestrial-satellite convergence. - Any real-world outcome will depend on SpaceX’s decisions, market adoption, regulatory approvals, spectrum access and network economics. - Investors and operators can use the framework to compare vertical markets, traffic assumptions and infrastructure costs before making commitments.